Senior Expert – Climate Change Mitigation Modelling for Tanzania's Long-Term Low Emission Development Strategy (LT-LEDS)
Overview
The role involves leading the modelling and quantitative analysis for Tanzania's Long-Term Low Emission Development Strategy (LT-LEDS), focusing on developing low-emission scenarios and assessing their implications.
Key Responsibilities
- Review existing strategies and identify data/policy gaps.
- Propose and select modelling architecture and tools.
- Define data requirements and engagement protocols.
- Compile, clean, and harmonize data for GHG baseline and BAU scenarios.
- Develop net-zero-by-2050 scenarios and explore uncertainties.
- Quantify mitigation and adaptation potentials, including nature-positive options.
- Assess AFOLU mitigation and carbon sequestration potential.
- Map international cooperation and assess Article 6 opportunities.
- Conduct cost-benefit, macro-economic, and just-transition assessments.
- Estimate investment and financing needs.
- Undertake ecological and social impact assessments.
- Carry out capacity needs assessment and deliver training.
- Support the development of an MRV framework.
- Ensure alignment with ongoing projects and national processes.
- Produce and hand over modelling files, documented assumptions, and user guides.
- Finalize modelling annexes integrated into the draft LT-LEDS.
Required Experience
A minimum of 12 years of progressively responsible professional experience in climate change mitigation modelling, long-term low-emission strategy development, or NDC/LT-LEDS preparation, of which at least 8 years specifically in integrated, energy-system or sectoral GHG modelling. Demonstrated hands-on experience with at least one widely used modelling platform (e.g., LEAP, TIMES, GCAM, MESSAGE, OSeMOSYS), familiarity with land-use and AFOLU emissions modelling, and spatially explicit nature-related models (e.g., InVEST) and macro-economic models (e.g., CGE or system dynamics). Documented experience applying Robust Decision Making (RDM) or equivalent methods is a strong asset. Proven track record in producing GHG baselines and BAU scenarios consistent with IPCC 2006 Guidelines (and 2019 Refinement) and in cost-benefit/macro-economic assessment of mitigation pathways. Prior involvement in the elaboration of an LT-LEDS, LTS, updated NDC, national net-zero pathway, or comparable national long-term climate strategy is required. Substantive experience working in Sub-Saharan Africa is required; experience in the United Republic of Tanzania or in the East African Community (EAC) region is a strong asset. Demonstrated experience working closely with governments, national statistical offices, climate change focal points, and development partners is an advantage. Experience in designing and delivering capacity-building activities on modelling tools for national institutions is required.
Qualifications
Advanced university degree (master’s or equivalent) in climate change, energy or environmental engineering, environmental economics, energy systems, integrated assessment modelling, or a closely related field. A PhD is an advantage.